The Royal Society
Browse

Supplementary material from "Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study"

Posted on 2021-05-07 - 11:13
During infectious disease epidemics, an important question is whether cases travelling to new locations will trigger local outbreaks. The risk of this occurring depends on the transmissibility of the pathogen, the susceptibility of the host population and, crucially, the effectiveness of surveillance in detecting cases and preventing onward spread. For many pathogens, transmission from pre-symptomatic and/or asymptomatic (together referred to as non-symptomatic) infectious hosts can occur, making effective surveillance challenging. Here, by using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we show how the risk of local outbreaks can be assessed when non-symptomatic transmission can occur. We construct a branching process model that includes non-symptomatic transmission and explore the effects of interventions targeting non-symptomatic or symptomatic hosts when surveillance resources are limited. We consider whether the greatest reductions in local outbreak risks are achieved by increasing surveillance and control targeting non-symptomatic or symptomatic cases, or a combination of both. We find that seeking to increase surveillance of symptomatic hosts alone is typically not the optimal strategy for reducing outbreak risks. Adopting a strategy that combines an enhancement of surveillance of symptomatic cases with efforts to find and isolate non-symptomatic infected hosts leads to the largest reduction in the probability that imported cases will initiate a local outbreak.

CITE THIS COLLECTION

DataCite
3 Biotech
3D Printing in Medicine
3D Research
3D-Printed Materials and Systems
4OR
AAPG Bulletin
AAPS Open
AAPS PharmSciTech
Abhandlungen aus dem Mathematischen Seminar der Universität Hamburg
ABI Technik (German)
Academic Medicine
Academic Pediatrics
Academic Psychiatry
Academic Questions
Academy of Management Discoveries
Academy of Management Journal
Academy of Management Learning and Education
Academy of Management Perspectives
Academy of Management Proceedings
Academy of Management Review
or
Select your citation style and then place your mouse over the citation text to select it.

SHARE

email
need help?