Data sampling and modelling strategy from Acute drivers influence recent inshore Great Barrier Reef dynamics

Understanding the dynamics of habitat forming organisms is fundamental to managing natural ecosystems. Most studies of coral reef dynamics have focused on clear-water systems though corals inhabit many turbid regions. Here, we illustrate the key drivers of an inshore coral reef ecosystem using 10 years of biological, environmental and disturbance data. Tropical cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish and coral bleaching are recognized as the major drivers of coral loss at mid- and offshore reefs along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). In comparison, little is known about what drives temporal trends at inshore reefs closer to major anthropogenic stress. We assessed coral cover dynamics using state-space models within six major inshore GBR catchments. An overall decline was detected in nearly half (46%) of the 15 reefs at two depths (30 sites), while the rest exhibited fluctuating (23%), static (17%) or positive (13%) trends. Inshore reefs responded similarly to their offshore counterparts, where contemporary trends were predominantly influenced by acute disturbance events. Storms emerged as the major driver affecting the inshore GBR, with the effects of other drivers such as disease, juvenile coral density, and macroalgal and turf per cent cover varying from one catchment to another. Flooding was also associated with negative trends in live coral cover in two southern catchments, but the mechanism remains unclear as it is not reflected in available metrics of water quality and may act through indirect pathways.