10.6084/m9.figshare.11695530.v1 Meredith Greer Meredith Greer Raj Saha Raj Saha Alex Gogliettino Alex Gogliettino Chialin Yu Chialin Yu Kyle Zollo-Venecek Kyle Zollo-Venecek wav_coi_Sweden.dat from Emergence of oscillations in a simple epidemic model with demographic data The Royal Society 2020 emergence smallpox epidemic mathematical model oscillation data 2020-01-23 12:09:05 Dataset https://rs.figshare.com/articles/dataset/wav_coi_Sweden_dat_from_Emergence_of_oscillations_in_a_simple_epidemic_model_with_demographic_data/11695530 A simple susceptible–infectious–removed epidemic model for smallpox, with birth and death rates based on historical data, produces oscillatory dynamics with remarkably accurate periodicity. Stochastic population data cause oscillations to be sustained rather than damped, and data analysis regarding the oscillations provides insights into the same set of population data. Notably, oscillations arise naturally from the model, instead of from a periodic forcing term or other exogenous mechanism that guarantees oscillation: the model has no such mechanism. These emergent natural oscillations display appropriate periodicity for smallpox, even when the model is applied to different locations and populations. The model and datasets, in turn, offer new observations about disease dynamics and solution trajectories. These results call for renewed attention to relatively simple models, in combination with datasets from real outbreaks.